Non-renewable materials: global supply and demand (Sustainability Assessment)

This page is the "Appendix II" to Environmental Impact from Depletion of Resources

This appendix presents a summary of the information documented in the OECD/NEA report [15] published in 2011 on the raw materials needed for a rapid growth in nuclear generating capacity.

Introduction

The study [15] collected and analysed information on current raw material requirements and rates of production of these materials for the complete nuclear fuel cycle, and compared them with the requirements arising from a hypothetical tenfold expansion of nuclear generating capacity (from 372 to 3720 GW(e)) that could take place in the latter half of the twenty-first century. For this hypothetical global NES, no limitation of flow of raw materials was defined, thus, global resources are assumed to be continuously available for use in any region.

Selection of a global nuclear energy system

Life cycle raw material requirements are documented for currently operating generation II reactors and their associated fuel cycles in environmental product declarations (EPDs) [20]. Owing to the dominance of light water cooled reactors in the existing global fleet and their expected dominance in the future, the study [15] used as a basis a data set from the Swedish Ringhals power plant that consists of 75% PWRs and 25% BWRs that are of generation II design. Thus, the future global NES was assumed to consist of these two types of nuclear reactors only, with an open (or once through) fuel cycle.

Simulation of growth of global nuclear generating capacity

Several institutions have produced simulations of growth of nuclear generating capacity during the twenty-first century, e.g. the IIASA, WEC, International Energy Agency, OECD/NEA, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Climate Change Science Program and IAEA. The most realistic electricity generation projection found in the study was that of the IIASA/WEC, which forecasts a target capacity of 3720 GW(e) (a tenfold increase compared to 2005) to be reached in 2085 [15].

Global demand and supply of raw materials

The data set (EPDs) from the Ringhals plant includes information on 68 materials needed for construction, operation and decommissioning of the plant. The demand for each material was increased to fit to a global NES in 2005 (with 372 GW(e) of generating capacity), multiplied by ten to simulate the demand of a global NES by 2085 (with 3720 GW(e) capacity), and compared to the global annual production in 2005. For the following materials, the hypothetical global NES in 2085 would consume more than 1% of the annual global production in 2005: bentonite (86.2%), boron carbide (1.3%), copper (1.7%), fluorite (24.8%), fluorspar 11.0%), gadolinium oxide (4.5%), indium (22.7%), lead (3.2%), manganese (8.3%), nickel (1.5%), silver (3.0%), sodium sulphate (1.2%), titanium oxide (2.4%) and zirconium (6.6%).
The study [15] assumed that any material with a predicted consumption by the global NES in 2085 of more than 4% of the global production in 2005 is a potential candidate for short supply. Based on this criterion, the following six materials of concern were identified: bentonite, fluorite and fluorspar, gadolinium, indium, manganese and zirconium. However, for all these materials, global known resources are large, and it is expected that production would increase in time to meet rising requirements for use in a rapidly increasing global NES. Additionally, there are opportunities for substitution of scarce materials, e.g. the indium used in control rods can be replaced by hafnium.
The study also discussed the possible changes in demand for raw materials by the introduction of generation III and III+ reactors during the twenty-first century. However, it found that most data on these types of reactors are considered to be commercially confidential and are therefore not available in the public domain. The study concluded that these advanced reactors — although some of them showed higher requirements for steel and concrete — will not limit the (tenfold) development of a global NES, as raw material inputs to steel and concrete were not identified as materials of concern.
For generation IV reactors, the study concluded that raw material requirements are currently not well known, given the early stages of development of such reactors. However, it can be expected that more compact components will result in lower requirements compared to generation II reactors.

Global demand and supply of uranium

In addition to the raw materials discussed above, the study also evaluated the situation of demand and supply of uranium for a hypothetical global NES consisting of generation II thermal reactors (75% PWRs and 25% BWRs) experiencing a tenfold increase to 3720 GW(e) capacity by 2085. The study estimated that by 2085, an annual production of uranium of over 680 × 10³ tU would be required for this hypothetical NES compared to ~40 × 10³ tU/a in 2007. The accumulated demand for uranium would be ~20 × 10⁶ tU by 2085.
Significant reductions of this demand could be achieved in a thermal reactor fleet by reducing the 235U content of enrichment tails (~20%), increasing the core average burnup (~5%) and the thermal efficiency of the plant (~5%), and by introducing recycling of fissile material by reprocessing of SNF (~30%). The introduction of FRs with breeding rates greater than 1 would further dramatically reduce the demand for mined uranium, leading finally to a negligible amount; for example, using the identified uranium resources (~6 × 10⁶ tU in 2008) in a fleet consisting of FRs with a capacity of ~372 GW(e) would enable an operational lifetime of this system of more than 6000 years [26].
A survey of known, conventional uranium resources produced a value of ~16 × 10⁶ tU in 2007 [15]. Additionally in 2007, unconventional resources of uranium, e.g. in phosphates, were estimated to be ~22 × 10⁶ tU, which could be mined with prices below US $150/kgU. In sea water, the total amount of uranium is estimated to be more than 4 × 10⁹ tU, but at rather low concentrations of ~3 ppb, leading to prices of US $700/kgU.
Comparing the demand of the hypothetical NES consisting of thermal generation II reactors with an open fuel cycle with the known, conventional resources of uranium, the study concluded that there could be a shortage of needed uranium towards the end of the century. However, the study also acknowledged that an expected shortage of uranium supply would trigger higher prices of uranium, followed by increased exploration, leading to an increase of uranium resources, as has happened several times already since nuclear power was first used.
It is important to note that this study did not take into account that uranium prices are typically only ~5% of the total electricity production costs of a nuclear power plant. This means that higher uranium prices have no significant impact on the competitiveness of nuclear power. Therefore, it can be expected that even for this hypothetical NES, sufficient uranium would be available throughout the twenty-first century, especially if the options of how to increase the efficiency of uranium use in the reactor fleet discussed above are realized.